Well, we are into March Madness and that has nothing to do with the Fed meeting this week.
The chances they will reduce interstate rates took a hit last week with the CPI and PPI coming in above forecasts.
Thoughts of six quarter-point cuts this year have gone the way of the Dodo.
The newest projection is for cuts to begin in June and for there to be three this year.
The Fed Chair did indicate last week that they see cuts coming, but would be driven by the data.
Last week’s data doesn’t support a need to cut any time soon.
As such, the markets keep setting records.
There is so much money on the sidelines that each pullback just finds the averages and indexes recovering to set yet another record.
This has been the case since last fall.
It is a pleasant surprise to open up my monthly statement and see the value growing in my various accounts.
The lead horse in all this fanfare, of course, is AI and Nvidia.
It is hard to argue when you see the earnings these companies are posting.
I am a bit concerned that we are priced for perfection.
It would not take much to pull us back.
Even a fall by regional bank NY Community was a mere blip.
After all, we witnessed SVB fall last year and soon to be old forgotten news.
My real concern continues to be the rising federal debt, but that takes some real time to be addressed when it finally becomes a crisis and legislators are forced to act.
No one appreciates higher taxes or cuts to entitlements.
That is not a hill worth taking on at this point.
For me, I must have patience, as there is little value outside the regional banking sector with all its risks and uncertainty.
I cannot fault those chasing this market as you have been richly rewarded.
Usually this time of the year is difficult for the market but here we are.
People are starting to say and believeing it is different this time.
I don’t believe that, but I am open to all possible scenarios.
That is theoretically of course.
I am way more conservative with actual investments.
Maybe I am just getting too old for real adventure and risks.
It takes too long to recover.
