We will have made it through three months this week.
The S&P 500 has recovered over half its losses and the big debate is where we are going from here.
The last several years would suggest that we will be back setting record highs.
Since the pandemic, we have had V-shaped recoveries in rather quick order.
During this process the index has climbed to record high closes.
We have pulled back from the S&P 500 closing above 6000 to back to 5500.
You can find an argument that supports either side of up or down.
The one big factor is the current administration.
The policies they are promoting in theory I support.
The problem lies in the fact that it may take some time for that to happen.
Americans have less than little patience.
We are an instant gratification society where we want our check in the mail today.
The current multiple for the market is around 23 which is historically high.
There are those that say times have changed.
The markets are led by the tech giants.
Last week, Google announced better than expected earnings.
We will get the rest of the Mag 7 this week.
It is hard to believe there will be any real bad earnings reports as it is too early for all the tariff policies to have an impact.
The Federal Reserve will be meeting and I doubt there is any reason for them to lower interest rates.
Gold and Bitcoin have moved up while equities have faltered.
This market is so volatile a misquote can send equities rocketing up or down.
Not exactly my kind of market.
I would suggest though that you could find some comfort in some old-line stocks that pay a dividend over 5%.
The likes of Pfizer, UPS, Invesco, Edison International, Regions Financial and Truist Financial.
The financial sector is one way to protect yourself from tariffs.
That is, of course, we don’t crawl into a recession, where there is little or no protection.
The one thing I can say about dividends it they ease the pain.
The decade-long climb back from the tech bubble in 2000 was made a bit easier with those dividend checks coming in the mail each quarter.
I would say the markets are primed for a rebound.
The alternatives to stocks are not that great.
You only have to look at the latest sales in housing.
We are in the beginning of the selling season and it is not happening.
I do believe that we are headed straight into a complete reordering of how the economy will work.
Much of the basic labor will be taken over by robotics.
I am not sure what the service sector will become, but it won’t be what we grew up with.
If you hate checking yourself out, good luck in the future.
Things we bought cheaply and threw away may become relics. I do believe in technology and innovation which moves everything.
As a country, we will have to embrace change.
While there is so much good in the old ways, they may have to be set aside.
Change isn’t bad, it just isn’t always easy.
Those who adapt survive and prosper.