We have moved into the second half of the year.
The second quarter was in fact a good one for the various averages and indexes.
The adage about sell in May was a complete bust with the likes of Nvidia pulling the markets along up to record levels.
Let’s hope the adage is true about the first two weeks of July being some of the best periods for the markets during the year.
It goes along with the first weeks of January.
I’ve had people ask me why and I see it as money managers getting involved with the next quarter.
This is what happens at the first of the year.
They have the previous year behind them and are ready to move forward.
Some managers have taken profits and sit the quarter out to preserve the gains that were made.
There is no real gain till you capture it.
Looking toward the summer, one might wonder what will come next.
We had a reasonable inflation report this week.
The economy looks to be moving forward and there are few signs of any weakness.
The most you can say is that we are not growing as fast as before, but that companies are making money.
One problem was evidenced this week with Micron Technology reporting earnings that were positive, but not exceedingly so and were greeted with a selloff.
The market is priced for nothing less than better than expected. Making profits at these levels may not be enough.
This is a high bar to meet. It is one reason that some analysts feel this market needs a correction.
Then there are others that forecast a major selloff like 2000.
I find that hard to believe as this economy is still strong.
This is of course what legends of Black Swans are made from.
You never see it coming.
I’m always amazed that nothing bad coming up is not reflected as actually good news.
We seem as a culture to only pay attention to something big.
I suppose you could say the news of the week about the debates and the Supreme Court rulings would capture the imagination, but that will go out with fall leaves.
I see more interest in the coming Olympics than a national election in November.
Just think when football kicks off summer camps.
It almost seems that too many people actually do focus on ESPN.
I’m taking some profits off the table in accounts I manage and putting the proceeds in Treasuries for the short term.
I’m not divesting completely from the markets, but locking up profits for now.
It is hard to ignore record high levels.
Maybe we should really focus on enjoying what is going on outside and not what we are bombarded with on all forms of media.
I am one that stays informed as I see it all as a complex web.
Nothing happens on its own.
There are consequences to every action.
Some have far-reaching impact.
I for one am off to the mountains.
I wish it was for an extended stay, but just to check on a cabin that nearly gotten taken out by fire which was far too close for comfort.
Had a couple of those the last couple of weeks.
It makes you really take stock and be grateful for what you have.
