Apparently we will have something else to fill out the news feed as the Senate has found enough votes to reopen the government.
I will be interested to see what the new topic becomes that captures everyone’s attention.
For those of us that have placed resources in a retirement account, I think earnings reports are what we might spend time reflecting on what they have done lately and what they are planning.
It has been easy for the last several quarters as the news has been positive.
The problem I have, and have had, is that the longer this goes on, the more it makes me nervous.
I think that must be some kind of psychosis, worrying about trouble being around the corner.
As they say in Louisiana, let the good times roll. There is little to see that will ruin this party.
I’ve had numerous calls of late asking my opinion of what they should do with their portfolios.
It is hard to concoct a story that is negative.
The only real answer I have is to take profits and cull laggards.
The question at this time of the year always has been the concern about paying taxes. I tell them that is the investing Gods telling you made good decisions.
In my experience, basing your decisions solely on the fact that you have to pay taxes makes little or no sense.
I will also say that should someone pose an investment offer to you and the first thing they tout is limiting taxes is a real problem.
I am only interested in something that grows its earnings and will run to pay tax on that gain.
It is interesting to watch how gold and crypto had a recent haircut of up to 25%.
This is what a bubble looks like. Attention is drawn to record-setting highs and investors jump at the chance.
This continues until you run out of new investors.
I am not about to compare this to a Ponzi scheme, as those cases are just plain fraud.
This is just an asset running up until they run out of new people to take the leap.
In no way does it mean a poor investment, just that it has run too far for now.
That brings me back to an analogy to taxes.
This time of year is the perfect time for reflection on where your retirement portfolio is going.
I had a friend call for some advice. It always troubles me to try and help good friends, as they sometimes just want you to tell them what they want to hear.
In this case the friend is an old acquaintance of your publisher and attended the same university that I affectionately refer to as Agronaught U.
She was in that trap about worrying about taxes.
I suggested she look for any laggards and eliminate them first.
If a stock isn’t performing in a bull market give it up.
It didn’t appear that she had any real losses to offset gains against, which is the only tax strategy that I will even discuss.
We then turned to taking profit off the top of some and looking to simplify her portfolio.
It had become rather cumbersome with over 40 different stocks.
Warren Buffet was a big believer in keeping it in single digits like on six.
The real answer she was looking for was me to predict the top where she could get out.
Like that could happen as you loyal readers can attest to my lack of forecasting skills.
She had made really good choices with some of the Mag and ETFs that reflected the S&P 500 and foreign markets.
What else would you expect from an A&M grad?
My lack of forecasting skills is why I tend to be a value investor.
We may have passed the effectiveness of such.
We will have a turndown, but I have almost given up trying to imagine when it will happen.
Moreover, any small drop has been erased in the blink of an eye.
An old Harry Truman expression is there is nothing new, just history that someone forgot.
In essence, they change the description, but it still involves people and choices and human behavior.
As such, I will say that I told my friend to enjoy the ride through the end of the year into January and then watch out.
As you have seen, I am probably wrong.
