We have made it through the summer, but Texans know that we have at least another six weeks’ worth of summer left to survive.
It is at least not triple-digit heat, there has been rain and football is back.
For some of us, the return of Friday Night Lights and the beginning of the school year is in fact the beginning of the year.
We have the holiday-shortened week to deal with.
It is actually pretty easy with the various averages and indexes climbing for the last four weeks in a row.
We had the big earnings report from Nvidia and it was what was expected.
That isn’t good enough for this market, but it pretty much just shrugged off the fact that the report was not off the charts good.
We had a nothing burger of a PCE report Friday.
Everything came in as expected.
Inflation is leveling off just above 2%.
More concern is growing that the labor market is cooling off.
Some were concerned that the consumer was running out of spending power, but Nordstrom proved that theory wrong as Walmart had proved earlier.
It seems that consumers are just getting picky about what they are going to purchase.
One thing not getting purchased is EVs.
Many consumers are turning to hybrids out of fear of running out of a charge should one choose to travel outside the city limits.
In Texas, that is all we do for the most part.
We calculate travel in hours not miles.
The renewable energy sector is starting to feel the crunch also.
The problem is cost.
Without the government subsidy, renewables are not as price competitive.
With natural gas dropping below $2 per Mcf, that is only going to get worse.
I know locally that our power company is looking to invest in its own natural gas-powered peaking plant.
We will get a Fed meeting this month and all expectations are that here will be a rate cut.
Most analysts won’t appreciate just a 25-point cut, but that is all they are probably going to get.
Most economists see rates dropping by over a point, so that the real return after inflation is 2%.
We have some work to do though to get inflation actually down to 2% and the economy not move into a recession.
The focus, I believe, will turn more to avoiding a recession.
We have forecast a recession now for over a year.
Maybe that is the key.
What we think will happen never does.
It does go without saying that there is more than enough out there to tip the boat.
We have the Middle East, Ukraine and all that China can bring to the table.
It appears that the waters are calmer than one would expect.
We do have an election to get past.
If the recent economic measures posed by both candidates are any indication, we are in for trouble in the future.
There is just no way any candidate will really address the problem we face with the amount of debt piling up.
If, for no other reason, dropping interest rates will at least cut that future cost.
There is only the real answer of high taxes and less spending.
That will not happen until it is too late.
Not the greatest plan for the next four years economy.
If you are thinking about your future value of your retirement savings, then it is the economy stupid.
I, for one, still think there is hope.
Sometimes just an old stalemate taking the government out of the equation is just what the economy needs.
Less can always mean more.
That is contrary to popular belief by politicians that actually believe they are important.
We at least have football to distract us from reality though.
