March is here and it is roaring if for no other reason than what is going on in Iran.
That will have a direct impact on oil prices, which will push inflation.
The extent of the rise in crude is being debated, but it will be higher and has climbed above $70 a barrel. We finally had a down month for the Dow after nine straight gains.
Obviously the case, as we set record high after record high.
Even with the pullback, the S&P 500 index is above 4800.
I am not predicting where we will go from here.
What I do know is that earnings reports have generally been positive.
I find it hard to believe that this trend in earnings will just stop.
It would take a major event.
Some would point to the current situation in Iran, but we have had the Palestinian and Ukraine conflicts during this climb to record highs.
As expected, energy companies and defense contractors have found favor.
Not sure how long that will last, but I have positions in both for some time due to the dividend payout. Not spectacular capital gains but constant dividend
growth.
I will say however that Palantir has gone through the roof to over $130 from under $10 a couple of years ago.
Just shows the difference between weapons and software contractors.
Never lose sight of the fact that the enormous profits are due to contracts with the US government. So much for efficiency.
We did finally have a resolution to the takeover of Warner Brothers.
Netflix was the early winner only to be outbid by Paramount.
I got started with Warner years ago with an investment in AOL. Not a winner for sure. That evolved into Warner Brothers which merged with Time.
At $30 per share, I will get most of my money back, but that is not the way to make money in stocks.
The time value of money would devalue that to a real loss effectively.
It is like people that have owned property for years and then sell it for a sizable gain without considering the fact that the same amount of money would be greater if it had been invested simply in interest-bearing instruments.
On the positive side, you now only pay capital gains over the taxes you would have to pay annually as current income.
Taxes ruin everything.
The current events of course have supported precious metals. Of note however, Bitcoin just can’t seem to get back moving up.
For all the fanfare for crypto, the last ten years the S&P 500 index has outperformed significantly.
Just another example that things are not what they appear on the surface and the devil is in the details.
Moving into March always catches my attention as I will make another spin around that bright orb in the sky. Not of any significance beyond the fact that I thought people of this vintage were beyond dead.
I may reflect that but try to lean into the windmill.
Not smart but not boring either.
March also brings the realization that taxes are about to be due.
For most that will be a refund.
I never ever understood loaning money, no matter how short a period to the government interest free. But as you loyal readers know, I am not the sharpest tool in the shed.
We will also have primary elections this week. Not sure we really will learn anything until November.
I am curious as to what that could mean.
The odds are for a loss of members by the Republican party. While that may seem real now, we will be in a much different place this fall.
I would hope our economy will be expanding but there are no guarantees and I have learned that perception is way more important than reality.
On a final positive note, we are about to kick off March madness and I have a team in the mix.
Way more important than an old man’s candle lighting.
I get to spend the upcoming Spring Break with my daughter’s family.
Always something to smile about no matter what is happening around you.