Hurricane season is supposed to be a little ways off, but this year there are signs it will be supercharged.
That's the descriptions meteorologists are applying to the coming season.
AccuWeather's Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter explains what factors they're seeing that are keeping the team on alert.
"This could become a supercharged hurricane season," Porter said.
"The water is historically warm in the tropical Atlantic, really off the charts. The water in the tropical Atlantic is about the same level that it typically is in mid-July. That's a problem."
And to make matters worse Porter said meteorologists are expecting a La Lina pattern as we go into the peak of the hurricane season.
The hot water and La Lina have them worried.
Porter explains that an El Niño-type configuration, as we have been in the last year, it can promote wind shear, changing wind speed in direction as you go up in the atmosphere.
Porter said La Niña - the opposite of El Niño - tends to relax the winds, which can result in more tropical storms and hurricanes developing and intensifying.
Porter said we will enter a La Niña pattern slowly at first, but it can ramp up during the hurricane season.
"That is also a concerning sign because that can really help to amplify the risks for tropical storm and hurricane development," Porter said.
AccuWeather's report stated that Texas and Louisiana could be at greater risk for hurricane activity this year.
Porter said they're looking at ocean and atmospheric setups in similar years to what we're expecting during this hurricane season.
"It doesn't mean it's going to be exactly the same configuration, but we look for patterns in those typical years that had similar ocean and atmosphere setups. And when we plot that, we see a greater risk in Texas and in Louisiana," Porter said.
AccuWeather long-range forecasters say that the current El Niño pattern is expected to transition to a La Niña pattern during the second half of hurricane season.
The NOAA issued a La Niña watch earlier this month forecasting a 55% chance of La Niña developing in June-August
“The second half of the hurricane season is likely to be very active, as conditions will be more favorable for tropical systems,” AccuWeather long-range expert Paul Pastelok said.
Though the timing of La Niña suggests a back-loaded 2024 hurricane season, AccuWeather warns residents along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard should remain vigilant for storms ahead of official start of the hurricane season on June 1.
“We expect that the Gulf Coast, especially the Texas coast, will be at a higher risk for direct impacts from a tropical system this year,” Pastelok said.
