A new week and the debate continues on where this market is going.
We have two weeks of gains together.
That’s good news, but the next strain of COVID is taking a toll overseas, especially in China. China is shutting down Shanghai, impacting Tesla due to manufacturing there.
This also affects the energy market, which sees crude prices dropping.
The rate on the 15-year mortgage moved up closer to 4%, as the 10-year Treasury moved to 2.75%. You can find an argument for the markets moving up and down that sounds as reasonable as the other.
If that wasn’t enough, we have Russia invading Ukraine.
There is the fact that inflation is seriously a cost of life these days and I am not just talking about the gas pump which filters through
out the economy.
I bought a double-metal-clad door to create a shop at my house and nearly had a heart attack when I got the quote.
I checked all options and found the quote I got was the lowest.
I will not stop the project so I am sending money into the system like all of us.
The theory that I like the best about what will happen with the direction of the various averages and indexes is there is little alternative for people.
If interest rates will rise - and the Fed indicates possibly two, 50-point rate hikes by June, this won’t help the real estate market.
It will draw more money into this market.
More companies are raising dividends and buying back stock, reducing the supply.
I see the analogy of lemmings following each other off of the cliff, but this could go on for quite some time this year.
The real question is when will the music stop?
If you have a long-term view and are collecting dividends, you can live through the drama with a bit of patience.
It is the short-term traders who can be wiped out.
I’m not smart or energetic enough to try and out trade the market.
Warren Buffet has told you for years to buy the S&P 500 stock-index ETF and watch your wealth grow over the years.
That is all great, but let me point out that in 2000 the tech bubble burst and it took 10 years to get that lost value back.
I am not sure there are many out there with that kind of patience.
I wish the alternatives were clear and I could say do this or that and you would be fine, but I am not into lies.
I will say the market selloff in March rewarded the ones who bought on the dip.
Some would say that is the first of many till we don’t get a rebound, but contrary options is what drives markets.
You have to have a buyer for every seller.
