We are into the first quarter and as such the next earnings reports from the big financial companies will be reported at the end of this week.
We will also have announcement of the Consumer Price Index following after last Friday’s jobs report coming in lower than expected for the first time in over a year.
This will all lead up to the Federal Reserve meetings and whether there will be another rate increase.
It seems that the vast majority of analysts feel another quarter-point raise will be announced.
The speculation of course now is what will the Fed do in September?
What has to be acknowledged is that this economy is not a recession. The current administration is touting Bidenomics with merit.
Moreover, it is starting to look like there is such a thing as a soft landing.
If you listen to any financial news though, there is plenty of warnings of impending disaster.
It would not take much of a Black Swan to sink this merry ship.
That said, we are trading back to levels on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock-index that many thought were unattainable.
Warning to those on the right: people do vote their pocketbooks and it isn’t all that bad right now.
Much can change in a year, as we have just experienced with interest rates being raised over 500 basis points.
It does seem that the market can’t take its eyes off of artificial intelligence.
There was a segment of 60 minutes as to efforts by Google and whether they or Microsoft will be the big winner.
I tend to think that we will all be winners.
It is of concern some of the demonizing of what the future will bring.
Change is the only constant and humans adapt.
It has historically been to our benefit, but our imaginations run toward the Stephen King side far too often.
What is coming after a pause is the rush to create new companies.
We have seen this before.
There will be a tidal wave of initial public offerings. There is plenty of cash just waiting to be lost and there will be numerous companies that won’t make it to the finish line.
We have just seen such in the EV market.
That is not to say that significant money can’t be made, but it can also evaporate once the shine wears off.
We have just gotten past the middle of the year and the equities indexes and averages are at levels not foreseen till far further in the future.
That of course assumed a recession.
There is plenty that can happen with foreign affairs that can seriously rock the boat.
We are doing better than expected, but it is far from the safe harbor.