As we move to the second half of the year in this holiday shortened trading week, you have to be impressed,
The S&P 500 has climbed 24% from the April lows to a record closing high.
This has come in the face of the on going conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, not to mention Iran.
The concerns over tariffs have subsided and apparently there is going to be a new spending bill that comes with a high price tag.
We have seen unemployment rise to date and the economy could start to grow faster than inflation.
It does seem this market has climbed the wall of worry.
This recovery in the market has come with the Fed sitting on the sidelines as it relates to interest rates.
Many would suggest that the Mag 7 is just dragging the rest of the pack up.
There is merit in that theory but you have to acknowledge that earnings growth is not limited just to those seven stocks.
It does appear that there will be agreements worked out on trade and tariffs.
There is far more good than bad.
That is not to say that we have no where to go but up.
For the current administration’s plans to bare fruit, our economy has to expand significantly.
I am not one to say it won’t, I am just not sure it will be the extent projected.
If it does not meet that mark, the Federal debt situation could take center stage.
I would suggest that there is reason to believe we will end the year above where we ended the first half.
That will be no small achievement given the current record levels.
One has to believe there will be bumps along the way which will keep that wall of worry.
I will suggest though that the tax bill and the reduction in regulation are going to significantly boost the economy.
Where the economy goes so goes the market.
To say I am amazed how far we have come is a huge understatement.
All my concern over price to earnings could be put aside should earnings growth faster than expected.
Moreover, where else are people going to put their money?
Crypto and precious metals to name a few.
Not sure what to think about real estate.
Cash is currently beating inflation.
The one thing you can be certain of is that there will be volatility.
The question is whether it will be your friend or not.
