We are closing on the end of the year and things are merry and bright from an investment standpoint.
The S&P 500 climbed back over 6800 and might make the projection of 7100.
Even if it doesn’t, the index climbed for a double-digit gain.
You have to understand that the average gain in barely 7%.
You math wizards are likely to realize that means there has to be some downside in the future to keep the average in single digits.
Most analysts however project a move in 2026 for the S&P 500 to 8100.
And just when you were told by me that the market doesn’t go straight up forever.
Shame on me. Obviously 50-plus years of experience means nothing in today’s world.
We should get a Fed rate cut this Wednesday of 1/4 percent.
With the job market as weak as it is, I see no way that the Fed can hold back.
The narrative shifted from fight ing inflation to worrying about the loss of jobs.
For all that AI will bring, nothing comes without a price. This world operates as a zero sum gain.
That means simply that there will be winners and there will also be losers.
No matter what politicians tell you, this is not a win-win game.
That is not all bad as in this world one can lose and then adapt and recover.
The problem is that we want guarantees of permanent success.
In investing you can get that, but your return is limited to mostly not losing your principle.
To gain anything more you have to take on risk.
Sounds good until your proposed gain turns into a loss.
In the investment business, you quickly learn there will be losses.
The important lesson is to minimize the losses and ride your winners.
The hardest lesson to learn is when is the proper time to sell.
Not sure I have an answer for you.
Any gain should be celebrated.
Never let greed get in your way.
The same applies to fear when it comes to investing.
I watched with interest this weekend about a movie completely AI generated.
The only difference between that and animation is the character looks life-like.
There is no stopping this train.
The cost of producing cinema has to come down.
AI is the perfect tool. Hollywood is in a panic as they should be.
AI is not eliminating creativity, it is eliminating expense.
This part of capitalism causes so much concern. Those who capitalized in this segment of the economy want to maintain that hold.
Free market economies don’t have that safeguard.
This gives others the chance to participate and compete.
This allows those on the outside to move in.
You can never relax. This motivation is the fuel for change.
The Haves don’t want to cede to the have-nots.
That motivation was the reason this country was born: to allow the chance at the apple pie.
I can only say on a side note that, beyond a successful investment year, it has been the realization of a long time waiting for Texas Tech, my alma mater, to do something special in my lifetime.
I guess this is just another sign for one to have patience.
It had been 70 years since Tech had won an outright conference championship in football. Essentially my lifetime as I am 75.
There have been so many setbacks this year in the Hill Country with the floods - this can’t make it up, but it sure doesn’t hurt.
Life is just pluses and minuses.
Please don’t let the down times get the better of you.
There is always tomorrow’s promise of better times, no matter how small in comparison.
Such is the same with the markets.
The only promise is that it will be different and to adapt and grow.
