Well, we had it in our grasp and it was snatched away.
The S&P 500 index was at record levels, WTI had dropped into the low $80s and NASDAQ had risen for 13 straight days.
For the NASDAQ, that was the longest streak since 1992.
To say it was sunshine and rainbows was an understatement, but then someone smashed the cake and the party stopped.
I understand the feeling of relief was very potent with falling oil prices, but one must always look for reality amongst the flowers.
Reaching any real deal with Iran seems doubtful.
Their rulers seem to care less about their countrymen.
They are about control through force.
I encountered what it is like to deal with autocratic governments when I was in corporate life.
I worked for El Paso Natural Gas and the company set up and LNG plant in Algeria back in the 70s.
El Paso was way ahead of its time.
After we got the plant up and running, the ruler of Algeria decided he didn’t like the price he negotiated for selling natural gas to El Paso and unilaterally voided the contract.
The executives couldn’t believe what was happening, but what was their recourse.
We were dealing with essentially a dictator.
Dictators don’t care about the rule of law.
They only care about power, no matter what they say.
Iran is not much different, as you witnessed them executing their own citizens.
So we wake up this week to a bad cold that just won’t go away.
I don’t know how you get out of the trap.
War is hell and negotiating with a party that doesn’t respect the rule of law seems unproductive.
So, after a quick celebration, the market wakes up to the hangover and no real medicine to relieve the pain.
On the positive side of the ledger, earnings continue to beat expectations.
Moreover, I am amazed that inflation has not risen far higher than it has with crude prices and tariffs.
The software companies like Oracle, Microsoft and Palantir have made comebacks.
You can even find strength in the industrial sector as Cummins and John Deere have risen of late.
I was interested last week in the earnings report from Netflix.
Their forecast for future earnings was tempered and the streamer was pushed back.
Its earnings were better than expected, but stocks trade on what the future is to bring.
I had suggested to a friend that he invest in Netflix after the merger with Time Warner ended.
He called me Friday and asked if he should add some more and I had no really good reason not to add outside of the general bias of mine about value.
It is really hard to vote against stocks that are one of one like Alphabet, Netflix and Apple.
You have to own them - it is just when and where to get in.
If you wait for them to be value, the economic situation will be so bad you won’t find the courage to invest.
But such is the life of an investor. Nothing is certain.
