We just came off three down weeks for the Dow.
The S&P 500 holds just above 7400.
All this negativity was stoked by the fighting in Iran, which sent WTI back up to $90.
Just when it was really getting gloomy, a pause in the fighting in Iran sent crude prices lower.
Just what the doctor ordered, but then you have to deal with a Fed meeting this week where an interest rate increase is actually on the table.
We also have earnings from Meta (Facebook), Apple and Amazon.
If you are fond of more information than you can digest easily, this is your environment. I have not even referred to all the political noise that never ceases.
I do believe the more we have to digest the better though.
I know that makes no sense, but it complicates the analysis which isn’t all that bad.
It is sort of saying the more confused we are the smaller the chance we will make bad assumptions.
It has been interesting to me that the IPO of SpaceX has lost almost 30% of its value after opening above $150.
I had a bad feeling about Musk’s newest adventure. Not because I thought it would not work, but that it would probably follow the path laid out by Tesla.
I have little doubt that Musk sees things we have little ability to grasp.
While I am no devotee of elec
tric cars, I’ll admit his cars are remarkable in style and performance.
He is going forward in robotics and taxis without drivers.
Not sure I could ever turn over my driving to software, but there is the future coming directly at me.
I am of such a vintage that I am looking straight at needing a service to get around in my future.
It is of course for the safety of others as I live in a town with an inordinate number of elderly and see the problems old age brings to driving skills.
On the investment side, I am a signatory on a couple of trusts my daughter set up after the sale of her business.
I am no fan of most money managers as their goals tend to be me centered on their bottom line.
I was confronted with signing off on the purchase of the SpaceX IPO.
I chose not to object as I figured it wasn’t worth the fight and would work out over time. Much time I am afraid.
At least I have some chips on my side of the table when they return with another underwriting that they make money on while clients are left on the hook.
I wanted them to wait and buy back later at a cheaper price.
That all sounds good now, but there has been many times that new issues have taken off and never came back.
Don’t forget that I am an unapologetic bargain shopper and have been waiting for over three years to get in to some high tech that took off and never came back.
Just another example that there is no perfect method of investing.
So, here we sit in the last week of July headed into the real heat of the summer and we yet again have little clue as to where all this is headed.
I should say, I have no clue. Those who claim they do are much smarter than me but that is not a high hurdle.
I do have to say that while some of the Mag 7 have been punished of late, it is not because they are not making profits.
They are actually doing quite well but they are also spending cash like it was Monopoly money.
Moreover, they are required to outperform even reasonable expectations.
This is the situation you find yourself when stocks are at record highs.
It is like now that you have done that what are you going to do for me now.
The problem is that investors get real comfortable with easy money and the longer it goes to more it seems normal.
Nothing but nothing is normal right now in the markets.
My only refuge of late is getting into some convertible perferreds that are like buying a hybrid bond.
They provide a little capital gain opportunity but you are really just in for the yield. They do not have the security of a bond.
I felt that with no value in sight, I would take some cash and put it at a yield almost double what money market offers.
That is not really bold but I am running out of options.
I am sure there are new companies that are available that will come to rival the gains of Nvidia or Palantir that one can and will find to make serious profits.
My vintage limits me on taking much risk. Not a great formula for investing.
It is only with risk that you have the opportunity for great gains.
So much for any easy solution.