So much for all my concern about the fourth quarter.
If the start of the quarter is any indication, last week’s earnings reports from primarily financials sent the various averages and indexes up over 1.5% closing near all-time, record-high levels.
With further reports this week coming that are expected to be positive, it seems only higher prices would be expected. Before you cash in all your CDs and buy the S&P 500 stock-index, I would have you note that 10 year Treasuries have moved above 1.6%.
Higher rates have seen traders move out of tech stocks into more value stocks.
I would also have you note that crude prices continue to hold above $80 and natural gas above $5.
Inflation is now a fact as Social Security will increase by 5.9% to reflect the plus 5% current inflation rate.
I know the Fed stipulates that inflation is transitory but they will get trapped once again and have to raise rates.
Late to the party again and the consequences won’t be favorable for the stock market.
For those of you that have placed your faith in crypto currency, you have been justly rewarded as Bitcoin has climbed over $60,000.
The rise comes as the first of the exchange traded funds reflecting crypto will be issued this week.
I am getting more and more questions from my friends as to the stock they should invest their cash.
That really makes me nervous as they are universally late to the party.
I just can’t see what is going to be the black swan to pull this market down.
All I can say is that investors are just far too bullish for my comfort.
That in and of itself is no reason to not invest.
I will only say that being at least on the train in a small way is better than being left at the station.
I just can’t get over my fear that I have been here before and this might be a really short journey.
No matter, have a great trip.
