I don’t know about you but September is the beginning of the year for me and always has been.
It is when school and football starts here in Texas.
Moreover, you go renew your hunting license and the opening weekend for dove season with deer and turkey coming soon.
It is the hope for cooler weather.
Corporations have almost bought in as their fiscal budgets begin in October. I know that the calendar year begins in January, but it means nothing to me outside of forgetting to change the date on my checks.
Going to electronic banking has helped those oversights.
What I will say about September is that it has historically been a poor month for stocks.
We are not exactly coming into the month on a high note this year.
The NASDAQ has been down for four straight weeks and the S&P 500 stock-index has fallen below 4000.
The tech sector lead by the FANG stocks and Microsoft have been the culprits.
Much of the blame is directed at the Fed raising rates, but that is just tossing the blame at something.
Our rates are historically still low.
We have low unemployment, commodity prices are dropping and I am sorry but there is no recession.
I will say though that inflation is real and we are starting to see the impact of rising rates on home sales.
I’m not sure we are going to see it directly, but Russia is planning a cold winter for Europe.
I am concerned about the impact of significantly higher natural gas prices this winter here in the US.
As if the cost for gasoline and electricity wasn’t painful enough now, we can get ready to sit around in the cold.
And if Europe didn’t have enough to worry about, England now has a new Prime Minister to adjust those policies, whatever they will be.
I am encouraged by the fact that the Securities and Exchange Commission stood up to China and stipulated standard accounting principles as it relates to stating earnings for Chinese companies to be listed in the U.S.
It is just another example of how we can stand up for what is right in dealing with the Chinese.
Contrary to all the naysaying about tariffs imposed on China, the economy continued to grow.
We need to come to grips with the fact that we are in an economic war with that country and only hard tactics will work.
So with my New Year upon us, I would just say that I don’t see anything significantly negative on the horizon.
I do think we will test previous lows, but we also will just as likely visit 4400 on the S&P 500.
Of course we have an election to get through, but we will make it through that without the world coming to an end. My suggestion is enjoy this my New Year with all that it brings.