The Jolly Elf is in sight but we have some things to get past before the end of year celebration begins.
The Fed will meet this week to decide on what to do with interest rates.
Many believe that this time the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 50 basis points.
That would stem the last three rate increases of 75 basis points.
Many also see the Fed raising the fed funds rate by another 50 basis points in February bringing the base rate to 5%.
Then the theory is that the Fed could pause to see what the impact has been with such a significant rise in rates over a relatively short period.
Many suggest by that time we will be in a recession.
No one has yet to figure out what that will mean.
At the end of the week, we will get the latest measure of inflation with the CPI for November.
The Producer Price Index last week came out a bit hotter than expected.
It would seem to me that dropping energy and other commodity costs should help temper the fires of inflation.
On the other hand, wage growth is far from over.
It does appear that some are actually reducing staff.
I would say though that the service sector is far from any sort of hiring freeze.
I had been concerned about heating costs this winter, but even natural gas has slowed its rate rise.
It still will be a much higher bill than last year, but you may not have to take out a second mortgage to pay your utility bill.
The pundits seem more in line with some sort of market pullback starting in the second quarter of next year.
With the government in gridlock and less concerned about elections, there may be a chance to actually focus on the real problems at hand.
It does seem at the state level there is more focus on specifics that actually might get some action.
I would suggest that while you are out taking care of all the presents that Santa is to bring, you look at your portfolio and lighten it up a bit.
Taking a little off the table is what I am addressing this week.
I would say by choice, but then there is the Required Mandatory Distribution to my advancing age.
I will transfer my withdrawal to a charitable organization.
Another friend will transfer shares to an active account since he doesn’t want to sell at these levels.
There’s much to consider besides trying not to slide off the roof getting those lights up.
Thankfully, I am at the stage where I can just put up a miniature tree on the counter, much to the delight of my new ankle-biting lab pup.
The joys of the holidays just take perspective.
