A holiday-shortened trading week that finds indexes and averages close to all-time highs.
Last week, we had the CPI and PPI reports revealing that the inflation rate is at 3% instead of 2%.
The market seemed to shrug and move on.
I think it is clear however, that there will not be any interest rate reductions anytime soon.
With the current administration initiating more tariffs with Europe and Asia, that cannot help the fight against inflation.
One would think that we could see higher rates before the Fed will cut rates.
On the positive side of the ledger, earnings reports have been consistently good no matter that the projections for the future remain conservative.
It seems hard to stay ahead of all the news coming at you these days.
Not only the magnitude, but variety is hard to evaluate with any degree of conviction.
I feel more optimistic than pessimistic for this market’s future, which is reflected in my thoughts that the S&P 500 will top out at the end of the year around 6500.
The trip may be quite bumpy.
I can’t imagine this market not having to overcome a correction.
From my value trading perspective, the harsher the better, but that won’t make most investors happy.
I had a friend call me last week and ask if he should move most of
his stock portfolio to cash.
He is obviously concerned, as he is on the more progressive side of the ledger.
I told him I thought that it made sense at these record levels to at least take 25% off the table.
He will do that in his retirement account, which will not create a tax event.
I continue to build cash by taking out any stock that has not performed.
I wish they were fewer than there are, but such is life.
Not saying they are losers, but not matching the strength of gain that others accomplished.
Not sure if I will ever get to reinvest, but with Treasuries above 4%, I can afford to wait.
It does appear we are moving toward some real adjustments in the work force.
The days of working at home may be coming to an end.
Jamie Diamond (CEO of JPMorgan Chase) told his employees to get back 5 days a week or find employment elsewhere.
He put it a bit more graphically, but I don’t want to offend anyone with a quote.
I never participated in an era of remote access to work.
I did travel quite a bit, but was always in another office in some other city.
I will admit that I don’t think my personality would do well working from home.
I am too easily distracted.
I do think that for young families, it does have real benefits.
It is hard to believe that it was four years ago this week that we Texans suffered through the loss of power and freezing temps for almost a week.
These environmental catastrophes are never ending.
It makes you start to evaluate whether the choice of residence should factor in such events as much as schools and economics.
Not sure you can plan around such, but it does not take a genius to avoid living in areas where there are fires, earthquakes, tornadoes and hurricanes.
The problem being however, can you make a living there?
I hope the news cycle settles down a bit, as people I encounter seem out of sorts.
We are not animals that appreciate change and uncertainty, even if it is beneficial.
I am afraid that is what we will have to endure. Whether it will be a benefit or detriment is far from resolution.
Trying to be positive.