If you are looking for things to settle down, good luck.
We did have a nine-day move up in the S7P 500 for a 10% gain. We moved up to almost 5700, almost up to the 200-day moving average.
It is good not to worry about the bottom falling out.
Many so-called financial experts predicted we will end the year where we are now. I think that is a pessimistic.
This whole direction is held hostage by tariff negotiations.
The resolution may take months, which should lead to more volatility. I would say that China officially blinked.
Last week we got a better than expected jobs report and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%.
While good, the dollar is under pressure.
I have long felt that our currency should be tied to the value of gold. That would pressure our government to reduce the debt load.
It is more important for the U.S. dollar to be the fiat currency than almost anything else.
China dearly wants their currency to take that place.
Reducing our deficit would go a long way toward rendering China’s aspirations unattainable.
Of interest this weekend, Warren Buffet will step down at the end of the year as the CEO of Berkshire.
Don’t worry, he will come to the office every day and will become Chairman of the Board.
He will be the guiding hand on any major decisions should the macro economy get out of hand.
There are many who feel we are not that far away.
There is excellent leadership at Berkshire and Buffet studied the transition at Apple from Jobs to Cook, which was nothing short of spectacular.
Most financial pundits of late have thrown around the terms of recession or stagflation.
It seems those predictions are hinged on the back of a trade war.
I don’t think we are headed there.
China needs us far more than we need them.
It will take several years, but manufacturing will move out of China.
The rest of the world will find reciprocal tariffs work.
Technology is our greatest asset.
You have to lead from strength and not deny the change coming.
There still seems a pent-up demand for investment in U.S. companies.
There has been a move into other markets more due to the extreme value, as those markets have been depressed for years.
How much further they can go depends on those countries’ economies as most of the real value has already been erased.
The only thing I take solace in is that Trump’s economic advisors have a strong track record with Scott Bessent leading the way. While the President maintains a need for hyperbole, Bessent sticks to logical economic policy.
I am not sure of any of the other cabinet posts, but this Treasury Secretary will go down as one of the best in my opinion.
It’s the only reason I remain optimistic currently.
There is a trite expression among investors about selling in May.
So far that hasn’t proven correct nor have any of the predictions about this market heading into bear territory.
We definitely had a correction, but we have been doing that and recovering over the last three years.
Nothing is perfect, as you only have to look at the crude market which finds WTI at $56.
Companies cannot make money at this level.
So it is good for inflation but bad for profits.
This is the world we live in.
Some good and some bad with the potential for trouble lurking just around the corner.
