It goes without saying that yet more record highs were achieved last week.
Most attributed last week’s move to the Street’s certainty of a Fed rate cut this week.
There was much discussion the cut could be up to 50 basis points.
Much support for this was the unimpressive jobs reports.
Unemployment has risen but so has inflation.
The Fed’s goal of 2% inflation seems to be out of reach.
The inflationary impact of the tariffs is what most point to as a problem.
The thought that it would be a one-time hit is not holding.
What is working is earnings, as reports from companies come in at or above expectations.
What has the market concerned is whether next year will continue the trend.
I see no reason to lower rates, but what do I know?
As we draw closer to the end of the year, there will be more talk about what happened to the dot com bubble in 2000 as it compares to our current situation with AI.
I am concerned that much of the future loss of employment will be due to AI.
It is the perfect tool to eliminate low productivity labor.
We are already seeing robotics take over much of the repetitive type of endeavors.
There will be more kiosks to replace clerks.
Robots are on the assembly line.
All of this will play out in the future for military.
Why put humans in harm’s way?
We have seen the rise in drone warfare and fighter jets may soon be without pilots on board.
Have you overlooked the fact that taxi drivers are becoming extinct?
Don’t despair, there will be a need for personal care in all sorts of fields and they won’t be low pay.
Mechanics are staring to charge over $100 per hour.
I can’t imagine what electricians and plumbers will make.
I am grateful though for YouTube to help those of us who would like to fix things ourselves.
I want to go on record that it doesn’t always save money but it is satisfying to accomplish a task thought out of reach.
While I sit and wait for a pullback to find value, I may have a long wait.
There are analysts I respect that foresee this market continuing to climb for a couple of years.
At my vintage, I can wait and I also know that while I have missed some, I have also avoided real losses by doing nothing.
I can’t bet against earnings.
It could all change in a minute for sure.
What does concern me is this market is priced beyond perfection.
We had such a long run up that no one can remember what a bear market is all about.
Even the small corrections have been bought on the dip and rewarded with gains.
It is like a whole generation thinking that interest rates belong at 0%.
That is the one thing about time.
There is plenty of it and change will come.
That is no reason to not be invested.
If nothing else, at least follow Mr. Buffet’s advice and buy an ETF that mimics the S&P 500.
That index outperforms fund managers year after year and there is no comparison over the long haul.
The best part is you don’t even have to think.
Just watch the markets move.
Is this the best time to jump in, I would say not, but not being on the train at all seems poor judgment.
Take a bit of that savings that is earning more than inflation on interest and give yourself a shot at a real return.
There is little reward without risk.
