When things happen more than once you get the feeling that someone is trying to tell you something.
Last year, I was in New Mexico at my cabin getting some work done and came home the evening of July 3.
I was awakened by a call from my daughter at 6 in the morning.
As any parent knows, that can’t be good and it wasn’t.
She asked me to go out to her shop in Ingram.
I was out the door and realized quickly that the rain I heard that night was much worse than it appeared.
I was seeing levels of water that I had never seen and I am in my 70s and was born in Kerrville.
I got to her shop and there was standing water, but the river had retreated back.
To say it was a mess is an understatement and a complete loss. Thankfully she has rebuilt.
This year I am back at my cabin and on Thursday my phone starts going off at 6 again.
This time it’s friends letting me know about the flooding in Kerrville and the proximity to my home.
I was sent pictures by a friend on the water line up in my yard.
Again, in over 70 plus years the water in the street, at the worst, barely gets over the curb and this time was within feet of my house.
I am not near the river, but a creek had overflowed.
I am starting to think going to my cabin in July is not a great choice.
Sometimes the market treats you exactly the same.
Something will happen and you chalk it up to just a fluke event. Hopefully, you have learned and are prepared because if it happens once, that does not mean it can’t happen again.
If it does, hopefully you have learned your lesson and are prepared this time.
Assuming something is a once in a lifetime event can be costly.
I remember moving back to Kerrville in the 80s and coming to appreciate how easily the river can get out of control.
We were having, so-called 100-year floods almost once a month. You move forward and we started a couple decades of severe drought.
Obviously, after the last two years the drought thing is not front and center.
It is the unexpected things that really can set you back.
That is not to say that you bury your savings in your back yard, but you do need a plan.
I was the product of two parents who went through the Depression.
My parents worked hard and we did well. We however did not waste anything.
Some people refer to me as cheap, but I was taught never to waste.
I was also taught to forgo things that were wants and not needs. That meant making sure I had something to fall back on.
I understand leverage and the benefits.
The problem is that should a problem come, leverage can wipe you out.
I would never suggest blatant frugality, though I would not class it as a sin either.
I have come to the point of essentially self-insuring myself by having enough set back that I can overcome most hurdles.
That does not preclude me from taking advantage health-wise of Medicare, though I do supplement it with private insurance.
I simply pay what I used to, but without a ridiculously high deductible.
I am grateful for small favors.
All this aside, we will hear from Alphabet, Intel and Tesla this week.
The war in Iran is ramping back up and crude has climbed back above $80.
The S&P lost ground to end below 7500 as the Mag 7 has fallen out of favor.
Of particular note was the drop in Netflix.
When you are priced for perfection and don’t project significant gains, you get punished.
You don’t even have to be the elites.
IBM was torched by a one-day 25% drop as it got ahead of earnings and warned of the impact on its business from AI.
I am saying all this to suggest that these may be the lazy days of summer, but you cannot go asleep at the switch.
