"Is vertigo setting in from sour predictions and positive market reality?" by: John Sample

   This will be a bit shorter this week as I am updating the software on my laptop and at the rate it is going, I doubt that it will be done by the time the paper goes to press. 
   So here I sit pecking away at my cell phone. I am doing this watching news that the weather predicting groundhog has gone into the witness protection program with winter roaring into March. 
   That is unfortunate here in the Hill Country with fruit trees in bloom along with Redbuds and wildflowers. I suppose predicting the weather over the long term is as impossible as predicting the path of the stock market. 
   Last week we moved the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock-index over the 2800 barrier. I chose the adjective to reflect my concern over the various equity indexes to move further north. 
   This week didn’t provide any confidence with the largest pull back in over a month. 
   The breakdown in China trade talks and the abrupt end to negotiations with North Korea were no help. 
   I would tend to think that price-to-earnings multiples got to level where profits were taken. 
   Maybe we all should take a hint and reflect on the fact that it is never really a profit until it is taken.
   I did find it interesting that all the doom and gloom has not deterred consumers. 
   The discount retailers, home improvement stores, along with Costco and Best Buy have reported sales growth better than projections. 
   There is some economics here with low unemployment and higher than expected GDP, all is not bad news. 
   I would suggest that the likes of Caterpillar and Boeing will be winners as the trade talks are resolved. 
   Don’t let the fog of bad news cloud your vision.    
   With that said, be realistic in your analysis.

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