"Presidential tweets are the bain of this market" by: John Sample

   I returned from Nova Scotia and was welcomed by the usual August heat.   
   At least there was rain here in the Hill Country to keep everything from looking like winter with the grass turned brown from the heat and lack of rain.   
   If that wasn’t enough, you have the President doing his all to send the equities market into bear territory with comments on the Fed chair and China.   
   Somebody has to get that phone out of his hands so he can’t tweet. I actually think that his policies are not the end of the world, at least economically.   
   However, he cannot leave well enough alone, much less let his subordinates do the necessary negotiations behind the scenes.   
   It is almost the same thing you see with the Cowboys and the owner thinking it is more important for him to make news than winning Super Bowls. Luckily for the Cowboys, Jerry Jones has a son that cares nothing about being a star and spends his time building a quality roster.   
   I would wish for that, but “The Donald” will never give up center stage.   
   Despite every effort he can muster to the contrary, the economy in my opinion is doing much better than anyone wants to admit.   
   That is not to say that Europe’s troubles cannot impact what we have here in the states.   
   I believe though that most people aren’t paying attention that both Canada and Mexico economies are performing much better than those across the pond.   
   I believe that GDP for the third quarter will be higher than projections. 
   I base this on recently released earnings reports that were better than expected.   
   That is the reason that the various equities averages and indexes were at record highs less than a month ago.   
   I am not ignoring the fact that we have this trade war with China and the other concerns that North Korea, Iran and Russia bring.   
   They just don’t impact U.S. consumers as much as one would think.   
   I do allow though that the concerns have stopped capital spending for most U.S. companies due to the uncertainty. That will not mean a recession but it does limit growth.  
   The gorilla in the room continues to be that a recession is looming. I continue to believe that it will come later than sooner.   
   Many project a recession early on in 2020. I think it will come in early 2021.   
   That means nothing as none of us know what will happen.   
   It does affect what we will do with our savings. Hopefully, most people have built up their cash reserves.   
   Some take shots at the energy and financial sector as value plays. Others trade in the extremely volatile FANG stocks.  
   I continue to wait for real value and we are not even close to that. I believe those of you who wouldn’t get out in July will have another chance. 

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