"What a way to start the new year" by: John Sample

   We made it into 2021 and guess what?
It is not different this time. 
   Right off the bat, the various indexes and averages gave back ground. 
   Crypto currencies did the same thing. What appears to be happening is much similar to what happened in 2000. 
   You have a whole host of new players that did nothing but make money this year in the market after last March. 
   You literally could throw money at FANG stocks and doubled your money or more. 
   People were treating the equities market as a another form of gambling where you only win and with interest rates at zero it would go on forever. 
   We haven’t been here before with this type of stimulus from the Fed. 
   It will continue to until the Fed raises rates. The theory that the Fed is trapped and can’t raise rates is seriously silly.
What will happen, I believe, is the Fed will get out of the stimulus business as Modern Monetary Theory has about as much credence as snake oil. 
   You cannot continue to print money and run up debt. 
   This is all done in the name of pandemic recovery but it will make it harder to recover. 
   There is no way to pay down the debt without raising taxes. That is like dumping an ocean on a bonfire.
I will give the market this though, it will have a mountain of fear to climb over. 
   I don’t see a catastrophe on the horizon, but a correction that might open the eyes of some of these come-lately traders on margin. 
   A couple of substantial margin calls can get one religion fast. The saving grace is that the economy is actually strong. 
   It will have to be. The falling dollar will help trade but that is fool’s gold.
   I am not Chicken Little here, but I will feel much more comfortable when multiples get back in the mid-teens rather than being up into the 30s. 
   An improving economy and easy comparisons to last year won’t hurt. 
   The economy is not contracting and I can’t see any real legislation doing damage. 
   That of course can seriously change this week should the Senate control move to the party controlling the House and Executive branch. 
   That could be the real factor for the setback early this week.
I can only say that being optimistic to a fault, I have always been amazed that this country somehow moves forward in spite of itself. 
   I know politics gets in the way but free enterprise does persevere. That said, it can be a bumpy ride where being conservative in nature with your savings isn’t a bad concept. 

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