We have made it into the so- called Fall season.
Of course that is a joke in Texas, but were are here as far as the calendar goes.
The S&P 500 is just 1% off its record high.
What could be worrying investors?
There is plenty for investors to evaluate.
We have an ever-growing national debt situation and the Fed is on track to raise rates.
The conflict in Iran is still a problem for energy prices. We have been alerted to the dangers of AI getting out of control.
With energy up, inflation does not go away.
I could go on, but what is the point outside of saying that one has a right to be concerned.
Of note is the fact that a significant portion of the S&P 500 components are trading below their 200-day moving average.
The last time we faced a mar
ket trading at its record high and having this anomaly, we suffered the tech bubble in 2000.
I am not saying that this will happen again, but it is worth considering.
The impact of inflation is starting to impact consumers as they are spending less. We are seeing that sector trading down over 20% as consumers pull back.
Some would say it is just that the real growth is in technology and money has moved there.
While that is true, consumers are having to make choices with their purchases.
The numbers are falling for those eating out.
You only have to look at the earnings from retailers to realize the impact of inflation.
When one sector suffers another usually prospers. Besides technology, we are seeing significant earnings in the energy sector.
That is intuitively self-evident every time you go to fill up your car.
It isn’t just the price of oil to focus your attention, you should look at the natural gas industry.
The price of natural gas has not risen, but the demand for use in generating electricity is only going to grow.
You have seen companies placing data centers in the Permian Basin.
To think that when I was working for El Paso Natural Gas back in the 70s, the Federal Government predicted that we would run out of natural gas by 1990.
I suppose that was the genesis of my lack of faith in the Federal Government.
The natural gas industry has been limited by Federal Government limiting the building of new pipelines. There is a very real risk should a pipeline rupture, but that is extremely limited.
In most cases it is not the large transport lines, but the small distribution lines within the confines of communities that fail due to lack of maintenance.
Their environmentalist realized the most effective way to slow down energy consumption was to prevent its availability and it has been very effective.
I am not sure that there is one particular thing that will define this week in the markets.
More and more attention will turn to the November elections.
I am grateful for the mute button as I can at least limit having to listen to the same political ad for the 100th time.
I have also been wondering about the level of crude prices.
It appears that more and more crude is passing the Straits, but he price has yet to come down.
I would suppose it is the thought that things could escalate at any moment.
But there is a reality to supply and demand.
On the other hand greed does creep in.
I am going to take my Required Minimum Distribution from my SEP this week.
Normally I would take it near the end of the year.
I just figured that taking it very near record highs isn’t such a difficult choice.
Waiting for something big and better probably could provide a higher price for the equities I will liquidate to take the distribution, but there is no guarantee of those gains.
I do appreciate though that there are a significant number of doubters out there to build that Wall Of Worry.